When on the Bubble in a Sit 'n' Go Poker Tournament - Don't Mess With the Big Stack

In a nutshell, sit n go poker tournament life, especially when on the bubble, is usually much simpler when you can stay out of the way of the big stack, and concentrate on attacking the players with the most to lose - the middle size stacks.  Unless you hold a monster, it is hardly ever good strategy to get entangled in a big pot with the big stack when your tournament life would be on the line.

Of course, if you happen to be a middle size stack, take heed of the warning.  That is, as a middle size stack on the bubble, you are always going to be a target of opportunity for someone.  Since, you are perceived as placing survival ahead of any potentially fatal risk.  Presumably, you would not want to give your undeserving opponents a free ticket into the money.  In this sense, you are always in jeopardy of being attacked by every stack at the table, especially the big stack.

How might one of these attacks play out? 

Well, say you attempt to steal the big stack's big blind, and he re-raises enough to put you all-in:  his counterattack would probably give you pause to reconsider the wisdom of your ill-conceived plan.  You would probably be thinking to yourself that you really did not want to be in this mess.  Because, if you were to call and were to be unluckily eliminated, then your opponents, even the pitifully playing ones, would make the money.  And, that would just not be fair.  So you give up on your steal, and re-learn a tough lesson, probably for the umpteenth time.

Indeed, if you were to attack the big stack with less than A-A or K-K, and he re-raised you all-in, you would have no rational choice but to fold.  That would not make you a chicken.  Instead, you would be rationally acknowledging that variance can make mincemeat out of any two cards that you might hold.  And, for that matter, even the A-A and K-K can become mincemeat.  So, particularly when with one or two short stacks still in the game, why tempt fate?  Why enter a race against someone who cannot lose, figuratively speaking?

Of course, if you are attacking a timid big stack, then you could have a profitable situation.  But, if he counterattacks with an all-in bet, you are then stuck with a very difficult decision.  Again, it is usually best to just not mess with the big stack when on the bubble.

Still not a believer?  Okay, here is the simple truth of the matter.  The big stack can afford to play perfect poker, while all of his bubble opponents cannot.  A simple truth, right?  But, there is lots more.

The big stack enjoys virtually unlimited chip utility, while all of his opponents are chip utility challenged.  If you are not familiar with the concept of tournament chip utility, then read Arnold Snyder's book, The Poker Tournament Formula II: Advanced Strategies.  Snyder's book is the only resource I know of that adapts the theory of utility, found in economics, to tournament poker.

Tournament chip utility works something like this:  the more chips you have, the more playing options you have available; while, fewer chips means fewer options.  Basically, the big stack is enabled to play his game, utilizing a complete range of playing options - fold, fold, and fold, or limp, call, chase, steal, re-steal, raise, re-raise, re-re-raise, and push all-in.  Meanwhile, all of his opponents, having too few chips to play their games, suffer from limited chip utility.  They are therefore limited to playing a game of, for example, push-or-fold only.

The big stack's expansive chip utility inures from, at least, five sources: 

1. He physically has the chips required for executing any type of play he desires. 
2. He cannot be eliminated in any one hand.
3. All of his opponents suffer from a comparative chip handicap.
4. His has confidence in his unimpeded ability to play his game.  And,
5. His aggressive activity tends to further diminish the already limited number of chips held by his opponents.

So, the big stack does not rule the table only because he has the most chips.  The relationship, as you can see, is much more complex than that.  He rules the table because he can make plays that no one else can.  And, because when he exerts his rule, he further limits the playing options available to his opponents.  Consequently, if you were to confront the big stack, you would be at a grave disadvantage in terms of chip utility.

What does all of this mean?  

 Here is an example.  Let us say that you are on the bubble in a single table sit n go tournament.  You are one of three similar size stacks, and you are on the button.  The big stack is on your right.  The blinds are high, and you have hopes of an easy pre-flop steal of a pot full of badly needed chips.

But, all of a sudden there is a big problem.  The big stack has pushed all-in.  Your hopes to steal the pot have been dashed upon the rocks of reality.  

This is when you can see the multi-facets of chip utility at work (against you):

• If you call and lose, you would be eliminated.  Which is an unacceptable risk, given that you believe you can out-play either of the other two similar size stacks.  Consequently, having inadequate chips has limited your playing options.  You cannot, for example, re-steal from a larger stack.  So, you fold to survive, but miss your opportunity to steal an easy pot.  
  
  
• And, there is more - sort of like adding insult to injury.  By taking that particular aggressive action, the big stack has deprived you of those badly needed chips.  Thereby, furthering the inadequacy of your chip situation.  The result being that in future hands, you will likely have even fewer playing options available to you.

This then, is your bitter situation:  because of limited chip utility, you cannot play your game, especially against the big stack.  Furthermore, the few playing options still available to you are oftentimes trumped by aggressive actions of the big stack.  Or, for that matter, aggressive actions by any of the other stacks.  Which not only impacts your current chip utility, but as the blinds rise, serves to help erode your future chip utility.

So, how do you escape this treadmill of defeat?  Well, there are basically just two remedies:

1. Don't mess with the big stack.  And,
2. Unmercifully attack those stacks with the most to lose.

And, that's it, folks!

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Copyright 2009  R. Steve McCollum

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