You might be thinking, if bubble play in a sit n go poker tournament is largely a push-or-fold environment, how can there be any meaningful bubble tells? And, how much could they really matter, anyway? Well, if you are a little skeptical about the importance of bubble tells, get ready to change your mind.
When on the bubble, when every decision is super critical, then every, even the smallest, piece of information can be very important. You have out-lasted, out-played, and out-lucked all of the several eliminated opponents; now, when you are almost in-the-money, you certainly do not want to mess up.
Granted, some tells will just have to be ignored. After all, you will often, especially when desperate, have no choice but to push your stack all-in. But, there are still plenty of meaningful tells, which can help you decide when best to push and when to fold.
Most of the bubble tells will be things that you already know about your opponents.
Perhaps, things that you have been observing throughout the tournament. Or, things that just make sense in terms of an opponent's behavior. And, all the other on-line poker tells that have been mentioned in other resources as applicable for any stage of a tournament.
Generally, most of the important bubble tells will have to do with observable opponent patterns of behavior. That is, patterns of betting, playing style, and other patterns of behavior that might be revealed during bubble play. The patterns, and any related actions, are the tells. Usually, whenever you observe a repeating pattern or action, you have identified a tell.
Here then, are some of the more common bubble tells, together with how they might be meaningful, and how to counter and/or exploit them:
1. Slow to Fold.
A player has been bet or raised off his bet or blind. He gives up and folds, but he does so very slowly. What does this mean? Maybe he is distracted, so it means nothing.
But, maybe it means he is angry. Or, perhaps he is a tough guy issuing a warning. So, keep an eye on this player because he has just displayed what could be an emotion. If that is the case, then you would want to take every opportunity to prod and stir his emotions.
Emotions lead to tilt, and tilt, even in its mildest form, can lead to big trouble on the bubble.
2. Quick to Check.
There is hardly a more reliable tell than a pre-selected check or a quick check. It will usually mean one of two things. Either the player has been disconnected, or the player is an inexperienced novice holding a weak or drawing hand.
Just as a red flag entices a bull to charge, a quick check should be your signal to attack.
3. Multitabling Shark.
If you find yourself on the bubble with a winning, multitabling shark, you are definitely up against a seasoned bubble veteran. He has seen all the moves, and knows all the tells.
But, the multitabling shark has an achilles heel. That is, they are smart, cautious, and capable of laying down a good hand. So, they are vulnerable, so to speak, against the all-in bet and the all-in re-raise.
In other words, if they are not pot committed, then they will usually fold before they will risk being eliminated on the bubble in a race. They know well, that every hand that they might hold can be beaten, either outright or by bad luck. They simply do not call any bets, especially large ones, very often.
4. M and M Zones.
If you are good at arithmetic, then you can quickly calculate the blinds-to-stack pressure for any of your opponents, otherwise known as M. Based upon a player's M, you can anticipate many of his moves. Because, M is a very reliable predictor of behavior.
5. Hyper-Aggression.
A player who appears to be playing hyper-aggressively could be any one of these several types, and more:
- An accomplished, relentless long-ball player who intends to control the table.
- A maniac who is playing out of line.
- A bully who is attacking the weakness of one or several opponents.
- An inexperienced player who is mimicking the push-or-fold strategy of others.
- An inexperienced player who is presently in the chip lead.
- A player who just won a big pot, achieved the chip lead, and is pushing his luck.
- A player with a desperate size stack who is attempting to catch up. And,
- A player who just lost, and is attempting to regain the chip lead.
As you can see, there are lots of possible reasons that could explain hyper-aggressive behavior. The challenge is to ferret out the reason, and then to design an appropriate defense and offense. For example, in the case of a maniac, the appropriate defense would be to avoid getting into a race, while offensively waiting for a narrow range hand to set a trap.
6. Protecting a Chip Lead.
Protecting a chip lead can have a universal application. In other words, it is not a phenomenon limited to the chip leader, who sits on his stack waiting for one of the smaller stacks to self-eliminate. Instead, the phenomenon can manifest in a pecking order. So that, for example, the two largest stacks will tighten up, try to sit on their leads, and wait while the two smallest stacks fight it out with each other.
When you observe this type behavior by large and medium size stacks, you should realize that they have effectively announced that they will not be inclined to protect their blinds, or to engage in any risk that might tend to endanger their lead. So, your course of action is clear, attack the hesitant stacks.
7. Just Lost a Big Pot.
Having just lost a big pot is usually a precursor of a subsequent series of bad plays, otherwise known as tilty plays. Inevitably, the player will press a little too hard to reclaim their lost chips, only to lose even more chips.
Whether tilty or not, the player seems to overlook that they have lost their prior level of respect and fold equity. And, they will begin to seemingly stumble into one bad situation after another. It is not uncommon to witness a player descend from chip leader to eliminated in a matter of three or four hands.
The tell is the loss of a big pot. Attempt to enter any pot with a player who has just lost a big pot, especially if they also lost the position of chip leader.
8. Standard Size Betting and Raising.
Once the bubble has entered the high blind stage, a player who continues with standard size betting and raising is usually broadcasting a loud message, one of being an inexperienced bubble player. Watch this player carefully because if the pattern continues, there will likely be several opportunities for stealing the pot from this player.
9. Calling and Chasing.
In the same vein as the tell above, when you witness a player calling and chasing, instead of folding or raising, you have probably identified an inexperienced bubble player. With proper treatment, his chips should soon be yours.
10. Position: Late, Button and Blinds.
When on the bubble in a single table sit n go, there are only four positions - the button, small blind, big blind, and cut-off. Each position represents and is conducive to standard behavior patterns. These patterns are well known, and entirely predictable. For example, the button, being the premier position, will attempt to steal the blinds, and otherwise intimidate the table whenever possible.
However, not all players, because of their playing style, experience level, or temperament, will behave correctly according to their position at the table. When you identify a player who is not playing their position correctly, then you have been presented an opportunity.
For example, if the player on your left is not taking advantage of their times on the button to steal the blinds; then, you should begin to act as if you were the button, when you are in the cut-off position. This strategy would effectively yield for you two opportunities per round to act as the button.
11. Playing Too Tight or Too Timid.
The player who makes it to the bubble, with its attendant high blinds, but is playing too tightly or too timidly, typically will not survive. This player will encounter two principal problems. First, they cannot stay ahead of the blinds. And second, when they finally understand that they must begin to play, they will find themselves out of sync with the table. That is, they will not easily be able to fit into the pace and rhythm of the play. They will fold when they should push, and push when they should fold, so to speak. In other words, their situation would be similar to jumping into the championship game, in the last quarter, without warming up.
Consequently, this player is vulnerable, both when they are playing too tight or too timid, and when they begin to loosen up.
12. The Experienced and The Inexperienced Player.
As previously noted, the inexperienced bubble player is inclined towards making fatal mistakes. Oftentimes, it makes sense to just wait them out. That is, give them their space, knowing that it is just a matter of a short while until they self-destruct.
If there is a mix of experienced and inexperienced players on the bubble, then choose your targets carefully. The experienced player is usually predictable, while the inexperienced player is often predictably unpredictable. If you are the least observant, there will be plenty of tells to distinguish one group from the other.
The most frequent advice for playing the bubble is merely to play more aggressively than your opponents. Which altogether, is not that bad of advice.
But, as you should be able to see in these twelve bubble tells, there is much more finesse required for successfully playing the bubble than simply rammin' 'n' jammin'.
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There are so many on-line poker tells that I have written two articles on the subject. You can read both at my site - Online SitnGo Poker Strategy.info. Look for Twelve On-Line Sit 'n' Go Poker Tells and Twelve Sit 'n' Go Poker Tournament Bubble Tells.
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There are also several books written on the subject of poker tells. And, there are several books about on-line poker that include chapters about on-line poker tells. You can find my reviews of all of them at my site - Poker Book Reviews.info. Look for the Poker Online Books and the Poker Tells Books sections.
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Read my Article Review of this article, Twelve Sit 'n' Go Poker Tournament Bubble Tells.
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Copyright 2009 R. Steve McCollum
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