It took me a long time to come to this realization, but just as there are stages in a poker tournament, there are also stages in a bubble. However, unlike the tournament, where the stages are clearly demarked by the number of eliminations and the size of the blinds, the bubble stages are determined largely by the blinds, and are often somewhat less clear. In the bubble there are three possible distinct stages. But, sometimes there are only two stages. And frequently, there is only one.
The number of bubble stages is primarily a function of the ratio of the blinds to the average stack size at the beginning of the bubble. For example, if the bubble begins early in the tournament when the blinds are relatively low, and then lasts for a long time, there will be three easily identifiable stages as the size of the blinds steadily increase.
Indeed, when there are three stages it will seem much like playing in a regular tournament. That is, you will feel more and more pressure from the blinds. At the beginning of an early tournament bubble, the blinds will be perhaps both manageable and unnoticeable. But, as the blinds continuously escalate, they will eventually become unmanageable and very noticeable.
However, if the bubble begins late in the tournament, when the blinds are very high, then there will likely be only two, and perhaps even only one stage. The number of stages will be the result of either the duration of the bubble, or the starting level of the blinds, or both. For example, in the case of a very short bubble there will likely only be one stage, regardless of the starting level of the blinds.
Nevertheless, it is important to learn to recognize each of the possible bubble stages. Because, just as there are particular strategies for each stage of a tournament, there are also strategies for each of the three possible stages of the bubble. In this regard, you could think of the bubble as a tournament within a tournament.
The bubble stages are also somewhat influenced by the distribution of the chips. In other words, a bubble with three desperate stacks is very different from, and likely will not last as long as, a bubble with four equal stacks.
So, for simplicity in the following discussion, we will be assuming a typical distribution of one chip leader, one short stack, and two middle size stacks. Which would typically result in a bubble that would require a lot of strategic thinking over a long period of time.
Furthermore, it is also important to be cognizant of the experience level of your bubble opponents. For example, if you are a seasoned veteran of many long difficult bubbles, then the following descriptions are probably familiar, and represent little more than another day at the office. A long difficult bubble is just business as usual, so to speak.
But, at the other extreme, if you are a novice who has rarely made it to the bubble, and who rarely has had to deal with the crushing pressure of blinds nearly as large as your stack, then you basically do not have any bubble experience.
The point is that differently experienced bubble opponents will make for differently configured bubbles. Most obviously, a bubble with four experienced players will likely be much tougher and last much longer than a bubble with two experienced and two inexperienced players.
Understanding the bubble experience level of your opponents will help you to anticipate likely events, to craft appropriate strategies, and to play each bubble stage successfully. For example, against a field of inexperienced opponents you might choose to act very slowly. This would tend to eat up the clock, and thus force your opponents into the disconcerting higher blinds stages where they would be less experienced, and more likely to make a fatal tournament mistake.
For illustrative purposes, we will consider the bubble stages as if commencing early in a single table sit n go tournament, and lasting for a long time.
Here then are the three possible bubble stages, their characteristics, and typical strategies:
Early Stage
The characteristics of an early stage could occur at any blind level, but would be most noticeable for a bubble occurring early in a tournament.
The blinds would be relatively low, say around a big blind of less than 200 chips. And, there would be an air of relief as everyone catches their collective breath upon achieving an important tournament goal. Indeed, there could be a momentary lull in the action as everyone sizes up the competition. The combatants have just outlasted five other opponents, and are now at the doorway to a payday. So, there is likely a short lived intermission as they take inventory and prepare their bubble strategy.
If the bubble is commencing early in the tournament, then the action will likely be casual compared to what is to come. And, the action will likely consist mostly of small skirmishes, usually well short of anyone becoming pot committed.
This is a time in the bubble which is most similar to the opening rounds of the tournament. A time when players are adjusting, and thus avoiding big confrontations. This then is a time when some small-ball tactics could be profitable. That is, when some limited limping, or calling, or chasing might be appropriate. But, the opportunity will soon pass, being replaced by long-ball and push-or-fold playing strategies.
The early stage is also an opportune time to step up your aggression. If you will, then for a few hands, you will likely be the only aggressor. Before your opponents have fully adjusted, you could steal several pots. The psychological and stack advantage that you could quickly claim would likely help carry you through the rest of the bubble and on into the money.
Especially during the early stage of the bubble, the aggressor is usually a favorite to make the money. This is because your opponents will be naturally pre-occupied with their instinct for survival. Some will wrongly feel that they can lay back because the blinds are not so onerous, avoid risk, play it safe, and outlast one other opponent. Sometimes this strategy will work. Sometimes this strategy is even advisable. But, usually it is a sure way to diminish a chip stack, and descend to the point of tempting elimination.
Consequently, as the survival player's stack grows smaller, the aggressor's stack will grow larger and more formidable. Since the only truly 'safest' way to make the money is to own a large stack, then aggression is the best bubble insurance policy that chips can buy.
Middle Stage
The blinds will have risen, say to a big blind of around 300 chips or more. And, the fighting will have become quite serious. There is no more peace and serenity while the combatants size up each other. That moment ended a long time ago. The bubble is now the scene of a full scale bloody war.
This is a time when every decision is extremely critical. Because, this is probably when all of the action has devolved into one strategy, push or fold. One mistake, one false move, and you can quickly become just another bubble statistic. This is when your bubble tactics should be decided on a hand-by-hand basis, by taking into account positioning, stack sizes, opponent temperament and any other relevant factors.
Late Stage
Well, the party is just about over. Everyone is weary, and someone is about to be kicked out. The blinds have risen to the point that every stack, except perhaps one, is at the best in the red M Zone. And, even the chip leader is at best only in the orange M Zone. This happens when the big blind reaches and exceeds 500 chips.
Within a few hands, someone is going to be eliminated. Because, at this point all of the combatants are being forced to attack and to defend with a very wide range of starting hands. Consequently, there is about to be a big hand. And, very likely the loser will be eliminated. Or, if not eliminated, then crippled beyond repair.
You can be somewhat statistically certain of this prognostication. Because, for example, the Turbo STT SNG will typically last about 40 to 45 minutes. If you allow about 5 minutes for the in-the-money play, and if your tournament has already run about 40 minutes, then you know with a high degree of certainty that the bubble is about to burst.
To the extent that you are aware of this likelihood, that being an imminent, probably immediate bubble boy elimination, you can plan your final bubble strategy accordingly. Depending somewhat on the relative size of your stack, you might simply choose to withdraw from the action, or you might have no choice but to make your final stand.
To Sum Up
There are three possible stages of a bubble. In a long bubble that begins early in a tournament, the three stages would likely be very pronounced. In a short bubble, there might only be one or two recognizable stages. But, regardless of the number of stages in a bubble, they would each favor particular playing strategies. The blinds starting level, the chip distribution, and the opponent experience levels would all share some impact upon the duration and number of stages of the bubble.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Copyright 2009 R. Steve McCollum
__________________________________________________________________________________
Comments