Well, there are plenty of scientific and mathematical ways to analyze and conduct sit n go bubble play. There are probabilities and statistics regarding starting hands. There is the independent chip model (ICM) analysis for weighing the tournament value of various plays. There is M, and the M Zones, for help with figuring out when to do what with your stack. And, there all kinds of software to assist with every one of these calculations.
But, my approach for playing the bubble in a single table sit n go is more about the predicting of likely opponent behavior than these tiresome calculations. You can call it 'playing the player', but I call it 'Intuitive Bubble Play'.
However, it is not intuition absent logic. Instead, it is an approach that is firmly grounded in all of the science and math. So, maybe my approach is just logical analysis with a large dash of psychology.
Anyway, as you may have frequently encountered in life, if you thoroughly understand the fundamentals that govern a problem, then usually the intuitive solutions will follow.
In our case, take all of the science and math, and mix in lots of game experience and careful observation. Then soon, you can be reading your bubble opponents like a poker book.
Intuitive Bubble Play is a dynamic process that proceeds on a hand-to-hand basis, and evaluates the current relationship of each opponent, including yourself, to each of the other opponents.
Before we begin though, here are some assumptions:
- You are attempting to steal the blinds or a pot with an all-in pre-flop bet.
- Your table image is that of a solid, thoughtful, tight player.
- You might have a slightly short, but not desperate size stack.
- Your fold equity/stack size is sufficient to inflict great hurt, preferrably elimination.
- It is early or middle stage of the bubble, before the blinds begin to overcome the stacks.
- Your two cards are any two random cards.
- You are generally avoiding the chip leader. And,
- You are not attacking a desperate size stack.
These are important guiding assumptions, because as they change, so would your bubble strategy. And one last obvious assumption, your target of opportunity opponent does not wake up with a premium hand.
Next, let me stress the significance of 'hand-to-hand basis'.
That means that there is a new evaluation of the opponent relationships with each and every new hand. This is because, with each hand there are many changes from the last hand.
For example, with each hand the button moves. So, your position has changed, and so has the position of each of your opponents. Then, with each new hand someone's stack has diminished, because they lost chips the last hand, and/or they have just posted a blind. And, someone's stack has grown, because they won chips the last hand. Furthermore, the blinds may have increased with the current hand.
It is likely that there are also player attitude changes. Because of positioning and/or chip gain or loss, one or more of your opponents might have reason to be more are less hopeful, cautious, or aggressive than in the previous hand.
Consequently, the opponent you were willing to attack during the last hand may no longer be a target of opportunity in the current hand.
Yet, may again become a target in the next hand. In the game of tournament hold'em when on the bubble, everything changes from one hand to the next. It is a very fluid situation, requiring both mental dexterity and mental flexibility. In other words, you must be constantly paying attention, and be continuously adjusting your bubble strategy and tactics.
Finally, there is the matter of evaluating the current relationships of all the bubble opponents, including yourself. Although detailed, this is not as complicated as it may sound. It is largely an exercise in understanding position, picking targets, and honoring stack sizes.
So, when the principles of opponent bubble behavior are understood and exploited, you will most likely succeed in your steal attempt when you attack:
- One opponent. For example, the big blind when you are the small blind.
- An opponent who has a reasonable shot at making the money. Otherwise, known as an opponent with the most to lose. For example, a middle size stack. And,
- An experienced, predictably behaving opponent. One who is not on tilt or desperate. One who is passive, tolerant, or longsuffering. Or, has just won a pot. And, seems loathe to engage in any confrontation.
By the same token, you will just as likely fail when you attack:
- The entire table. For example, when you attack from the under-the-gun position.
- An opponent who has nothing to lose. That is, he is the only short stack, or is desperate. And,
- An inexperienced, calling station or maniac. And, those opponents who seem determined to engage in any confrontation.
Bear in mind, that as the bubble ages, that is, once the blinds begin to overtake the stacks, then most of the above will no longer apply. At that point, table desperation will likely prevail. It is then but a few moments until the bubble will burst. Players who had previously avoided confrontation will no longer have a choice but to take a stand with practically any two cards.
So, here are a couple of tips regarding a late stage bubble:
- Unless you are the chip leader, try to end the bubble before it gets to this point. And,
- If you are not the chip leader, and if you think that your stack can survive a few more minutes, then stop playing. Someone is about to be forced into a fatal mistake. Do not let it be you.
In conclusion, to distill Intuitive Bubble Play into a few simple rules:
- attack the fewest opponents, preferably only one,
- attack the opponent with the most to lose,
- avoid the desperate stack,
- avoid the chip leader,
- attack the rational, predictable opponent,
- avoid the inexperienced, unpredictable opponent, and
- re-evaluate the entire situation with each new hand.
And, one last thought. For an all around winning bubble strategy, do not call and do not chase. Simply attack, attack, attack!
----------------------------------------------------------
Read my Article Review of this article, Intuitive Sit 'n' Go Bubble Play.
___________________________________________________________________________________
Copyright 2009 R. Steve McCollum
___________________________________________________________________________________
Comments